- Trump’s policies have weakened non-proliferation efforts, increasing the risk of more nations pursuing nuclear weapons.
- U.S. allies such as Poland and South Korea are reconsidering nuclear armament due to declining trust in American security guarantees.
- A new nuclear arms race is emerging as global tensions rise and arms control agreements collapse.
The foreign policy approach of former U.S. President Donald Trump has often been described as erratic, transactional, and unpredictable. While his “America First” agenda resonated with his domestic base, its impact on global stability has been far more contentious.
One of the most alarming consequences of Trump’s foreign policy is the potential to trigger a new nuclear arms race, particularly among current US “allies” that don’t currently possess nuclear weapons.
This article explores how Trump’s policies—ranging from his withdrawal from key international agreements to his inconsistent alliances—have created a volatile environment that could push more nations to pursue nuclear capabilities.
Ukraine nuclear disarmament as the first trigger
The main current event that led some countries to rethink their nuclear weapons policy is the case of Ukraine, which voluntarily gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 1990s in exchange for security guarantees from major powers, including the United States and Russia.
Despite these assurances, Ukraine was invaded by Russia in 2014 and again in 2022, setting a dangerous precedent that nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantor of a nation’s sovereignty. This lesson has not been lost on other countries, particularly those facing security threats, and could accelerate the push for nuclear proliferation.
Why Trump is the second trigger to a new nuclear weapons arms race
1. Undermining International Agreements
One of the hallmarks of Trump’s foreign policy was his disdain for multilateral agreements, particularly those aimed at curbing nuclear proliferation. In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA), despite Iran’s compliance with the agreement at the time.
This move not only strained relations with European allies but also sent a clear message to the international community: U.S. commitments under such agreements are not reliable.
The collapse of the JCPOA has incentivized Iran to ramp up its nuclear program, raising the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran.
In response, neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey have hinted at their own nuclear ambitions, fearing a regional imbalance of power. This domino effect could lead to a dangerous proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, a region already fraught with instability.
2. Eroding Trust in U.S. Security Guarantees
Trump’s transactional approach to alliances further destabilized global security dynamics. By questioning the value of NATO and demanding greater financial contributions from allies, Trump sowed doubt about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.
For countries that rely on American protection, such as South Korea, Japan and almost the whole of Europea nations, this unpredictability has raised concerns about their vulnerability to nuclear-armed adversaries like North Korea and Russia.
In response, some U.S. allies may feel compelled to develop their own nuclear arsenals as a deterrent. For instance, South Korea has seen growing public support for nuclear armament, driven by fears of North Korea’s advancing capabilities and uncertainty about U.S. commitment.
Similarly, Japan, the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, has debated whether to reconsider its pacifist stance in the face of rising threats from China and North Korea.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is already discussing the idea of having access to nuclear weapons.
3. Escalating Tensions with Nuclear Powers
Trump’s confrontational rhetoric and actions toward nuclear-armed states like China and Russia have also contributed to global instability. His trade war with China and withdrawal from arms control treaties, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, have heightened tensions and undermined decades of diplomatic efforts to limit nuclear arsenals.
The erosion of arms control agreements has created a vacuum, encouraging both established and emerging nuclear powers to modernize and expand their arsenals. For example, Russia has developed new hypersonic missiles, while China has accelerated its nuclear buildup. In this environment, smaller nations may feel pressured to acquire nuclear weapons to ensure their survival in an increasingly anarchic international system.
4. Normalizing Nuclear Proliferation
Perhaps the most insidious effect of Trump’s foreign policy is the normalization of nuclear proliferation. By openly advocating for an arms race and boasting about the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, Trump sent a message that nuclear weapons are a legitimate tool of statecraft.
This rhetoric undermines the global norm against nuclear proliferation, which has been a cornerstone of international security since the Cold War.
Countries that once viewed nuclear weapons as taboo may now see them as essential for deterrence and prestige. For instance, Brazil and Argentina, which abandoned their nuclear programs in the 1990s, could revisit their decisions in light of shifting global dynamics. Similarly, nations like South Africa and Egypt might reconsider their non-nuclear status if they perceive a weakening of the global non-proliferation regime.
5. Potential New Nuclear Powers
The combination of eroding trust in U.S. leadership, the collapse of arms control agreements, and the example set by Ukraine’s invasion has created a dangerous environment where more countries may seek nuclear weapons. Several nations are particularly at risk of pursuing nuclear capabilities:
– Germany: As Europe’s largest economy and a key NATO member, Germany has historically relied on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for its security. However, growing tensions with Russia and doubts about America’s commitment to NATO could push Germany to reconsider its non-nuclear stance or, at the very least, come under France’s nuclear umbrella.
– Poland: Situated on NATO’s eastern flank, Poland has expressed concerns about Russian aggression and the reliability of U.S. security guarantees. As mentioned above, on March 7th 2025, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament that Poland should reconsider the idea of having access to nuclear weapons.
– South Korea: Facing an increasingly belligerent North Korea and uncertainty about U.S. support, South Korea has seen rising public and political support for developing its own nuclear arsenal.
– Japan: Long committed to a pacifist constitution, Japan has nonetheless debated the possibility of nuclear armament in response to threats from North Korea and China.
– Taiwan: The country’s consideration of acquiring nuclear weapons could be influenced by perceived unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy under President Trump. More specifically, Trump’s “America First” stance. For instance, during his 2016 campaign, Trump suggested that allies like Japan and South Korea might need to develop their own nuclear arsenals if they do not contribute more to their defense costs.
Such signals may lead Taiwan to question the steadfastness of U.S. support, potentially driving it to consider developing its own nuclear deterrent to ensure its security against regional threats.
Most of the countries listed are highly technologically advanced and already developed nuclear power plants. As a result, developing nuclear weapons would not represent a significant technological leap for them, potentially enabling access to such weapons in less than a year following the decision to pursue them.
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Donald Trump’s erratic foreign policy has left a legacy of uncertainty and instability that continues to reverberate across the globe. By undermining international agreements, eroding trust in U.S. security guarantees, escalating tensions with nuclear powers, and setting a dangerous precedent with Ukraine, Trump’s approach has created fertile ground for a new nuclear arms race.
If left unchecked, this trend could lead to a world where nuclear weapons are no longer the exception but the norm—a scenario that would endanger humanity’s very survival.
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