In 1899, an arbitral tribunal issued a ruling that granted the majority of the disputed territory to British Guiana, now known as Guyana. However, Venezuela rejected the verdict, claiming foreign interference. Over the decades, relations between the two countries have fluctuated between moments of tension and periods of dialogue. The recent discovery of extensive oil reserves in the region has reignited hostilities.
The reserves could exceed 1 billion barrels of oil in just the Liza field. These promising findings have implications not only for Guyana’s economy but also for global geopolitical balance and energy market dynamics.
The current stance of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his strategy of claiming the disputed Essequibo region through a referendum has drawn comparisons with historical events, notably the approach of Argentine leader General Leopoldo Galtieri during the Falklands War in 1982 between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Both leaders sought to consolidate domestic support through nationalist movements, using territorial disputes to divert attention from political issues and internal problems.
Will Venezuela Militarily Attack Guyana?
Such a scenario is unlikely. What can happen is a small Venezuelan military provocation of a hybrid war. The reasons that support this perspective are:
Abundance of Oil Reserves U.S. Military Intervention Lessons from Ukraine Possibility of French Intervention Brazil’s Criticisms