- The Lobito Railway will promote more efficient mineral exports from the center of the continent to the coast;
- President Joe Biden’s visit to Angola was a strategic move by the US to compete with China’s influence in the region;
- The success of the Lobito Corridor could challenge dependence on Chinese infrastructure models and promote more sustainable development.
A railway that will not only connect countries, but could also help redefine the global balance of power.
This is the case of the Lobito Railway, an ambitious US-funded project that promises to transform the transportation of natural resources in Africa and challenge China’s economic hegemony in the region.
For this reason, it is important to analyze how this railway could symbolize strategic competition between great powers and what its impact will be for the African countries involved.
What is the Lobito Railway and What is its Purpose?
The Lobito Railway, a strategic project stretching over 1,300 km, aims to connect Africa’s mineral hub, especially the Copperbelt region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia, to the Port of Lobito on Angola’s Atlantic coast.
This railway has the potential to promote exports of critical minerals more efficiently, facilitating the transportation of resources such as copper and cobalt, which are essential for the production of green technologies such as electric vehicle batteries.
The railway is currently under construction, with some sections already inaugurated. In August 2023, an initial section was inaugurated, reducing transportation time from over 30 days via poor roads to just 6 days via rail.
The railway is operated by Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR), a consortium that took over operations in January 2023. The project also includes an initial investment of US$250 million, which aims to modernize tracks, improve telecommunications infrastructure and expand the rail fleet.
There are also plans to extend the corridor by a further 800 km to Zambia, and an ambitious proposal aims to connect the railway to the Indian Ocean, creating a transcontinental rail route that would cross Angola, Zambia and Tanzania.
The full impact of the railway, however, will only be felt once it is fully completed, which could take several years.
The corridor will be essential for:
- Facilitating international trade: Exporting minerals essential for green technologies, such as electric vehicle batteries, to markets such as the US and Europe.
- Promoting local development: Reducing logistics costs and stimulating sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing along the corridor.
- Offer alternatives to Chinese dependence: Provide a cheaper and more sustainable financing and infrastructure model.
Was Biden’s Visit to Angola a Strategic Move in the Dispute with China?
President Joe Biden’s visit to Angola in November 2023 marked an important point in relations between the United States and Sub-Saharan Africa.
In addition to being a diplomatic gesture, this trip symbolizes the American attempt to rival China’s influence on the continent, especially through investment in strategic infrastructure, such as the Lobito Corridor. However, with Donald Trump’s imminent return to the presidency, the continuity of this project is shrouded in uncertainty.
The choice of Angola for the presidential visit had geopolitical reasons. This country, historically influenced by China and Russia, has repositioned itself as a pragmatic and multipolar actor under the leadership of President João Lourenço.
With its vast reserves of oil, cobalt and lithium, Angola is a key player on the geopolitical chessboard for the US, which is seeking alternatives to China’s dominance in the market for minerals essential for green technologies.
But while the railway has the potential to transform the economic dynamics of Angola, the DRC and Zambia, the real impact will depend on the completion of the project and the maintenance of a stable environment that is favorable to foreign investment.
Why Trump’s Return Brings Uncertainty to the Lobito Corridor?
With Donald Trump set to resume the presidency, questions are emerging about the future of the Lobito Corridor and other similar initiatives.
During his previous term, Trump showed little interest in Africa, prioritizing isolationist policies and reducing the US presence in many parts of the world.
If Trump adopts a more direct-competition-focused approach with China, as is expected, he may consider the project irrelevant, since the railway could also benefit Chinese companies, since the infrastructure will be used across a polar region.
This could lead to a redirection of US resources to other strategies that completely exclude Chinese participation.
On the other hand, some experts believe that the Lobito Corridor can survive this transition. Its multilateral collaborative nature, involving European and African partners, could ensure the continuity of the project, even with changes in US policy.
Why is the Lobito Corridor So Relevant in the US-China Rivalry?
China’s Belt and Road (BRI) project, launched in 2013, is a global infrastructure network that includes railways, ports, highways and telecommunications. It spans more than 140 countries, many of them in Africa, and aims to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through strategic trade routes.
While the BRI has brought many advances in infrastructure, it has also raised concerns about its economic viability. In countries like Sri Lanka and Zambia, high-interest Chinese loans with rigid collateral guarantees have resulted in debt crises.
These experiences have led some countries to reconsider their participation in the BRI or renegotiate unfavorable contracts.
However, unlike the Chinese model – often criticized for creating such debt traps – the US-led project, supported by G7 partners, seeks to offer a more transparent and sustainable alternative.
In addition, the Lobito Corridor could also bring greater market diversification and strengthen local partnerships, aiming to create jobs and stimulate economic development along the corridor, addressing criticism that Chinese infrastructure often benefits only foreign investors.
In addition to the Lobito Corridor, other initiatives are being planned to compete with the BRI, including:
- LAPSSET Corridor (Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia): A multimodal infrastructure network in East Africa.
- Transaqua Project: A proposed canal to connect Lake Chad to Congo, with European support.
- Transcontinental African Network: Initial plans to create a rail network that connects the north and south of the continent.
What are the future predictions for the success of the Lobito Corridor?
If the Lobito Corridor is successful, it could become a new milestone in the relationship between the West and Africa, paving the way for further investment in infrastructure and technology on the continent.
However, the success of the project will depend on several factors, such as:
- Continued funding: Trump’s arrival could jeopardize the allocation of American resources to the corridor.
- Local support: The maintenance and expansion of the railway require consistent policies from African governments.
- Competing geopolitical interests: The presence of Chinese and Western companies in the project could generate tensions or, paradoxically, create an environment of multipolar cooperation.
In addition, the railway becomes a strategic asset, connecting these mineral riches to global markets at a time when demand for them is growing exponentially, due to the search for energy transition.
As already mentioned, minerals such as cobalt and lithium are essential for the manufacture of batteries for electric vehicles and the storage of renewable energy.
This leading role could put Southern Africa in an unprecedented bargaining position in global geopolitics. The region could negotiate better export agreements and even attract investment in local processing to export higher value-added products, reducing its dependence on the export of simple raw materials.
On the other hand, the dependence on African minerals for the energy transition creates a delicate scenario: while countries such as the US and China seek to secure access to these resources, African governments will need to balance external partnerships without compromising their long-term interests.
The project’s ability to survive political changes in the United States and attract sustainable investment will depend on its effectiveness in delivering real benefits to African countries.
If Angola, the DRC and Zambia are able to use the corridor as a tool for local development, strengthening their industries and exports, the impact could be long-lasting.
For the US, the Lobito Corridor could represent an opportunity to build a more equitable and strategic relationship with Africa, rivaling China in a model that prioritizes multilateral cooperation and mutual benefits.
However, this ambition will depend on political consistency and a genuine commitment to African development, something that the future US administration will need to demonstrate to consolidate this milestone in the relationship between the West and the African continent.
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